Results

cesm2.ssp245

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means 0.114 0.202 -0.509 -0.528
ratio_of_sd 0.986 1.001 0.997 0.947
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.932 0.935 0.956 0.818
maximum_error 0.348 0.120 0.126 0.256
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.132 0.161 0.137 0.165
qqplot_mae 0.333 0.590 1.482 1.541
acf_mae 0.035 0.059 0.034 0.080
extremogram_mae 0.021 0.039 0.041 0.019

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp370

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means 0.121 0.209 -0.567 -0.594
ratio_of_sd 0.982 0.995 0.967 0.917
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.929 0.928 0.959 0.809
maximum_error 0.368 0.122 0.127 0.247
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.069 0.058 0.041 0.118
qqplot_mae 0.353 0.609 1.651 1.735
acf_mae 0.033 0.058 0.019 0.072
extremogram_mae 0.009 0.016 0.017 0.017

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

cesm2.ssp585

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means 0.189 0.281 -0.444 -0.472
ratio_of_sd 0.979 0.995 0.995 0.947
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.928 0.927 0.958 0.811
maximum_error 0.357 0.124 0.111 0.249
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.056 0.062 0.053 0.089
qqplot_mae 0.552 0.818 1.294 1.379
acf_mae 0.033 0.059 0.031 0.082
extremogram_mae 0.011 0.019 0.016 0.012

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

ec_earth3.ssp434

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means 0.146 0.232 -0.266 -0.284
ratio_of_sd 0.999 1.016 1.019 0.965
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.947 0.983 0.946 0.718
maximum_error 0.378 0.138 0.163 0.259
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.146 0.122 0.176 0.285
qqplot_mae 0.425 0.677 0.775 0.838
acf_mae 0.048 0.056 0.065 0.139
extremogram_mae 0.021 0.022 0.021 0.032

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp245

Metric lstm cnn naive xgboost
diff_of_means 0.163 0.253 -0.319 -0.337
ratio_of_sd 0.978 0.987 1.153 1.094
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.917 0.922 0.962 0.922
maximum_error 0.383 0.136 0.112 0.216
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.195 0.189 0.304 0.294
qqplot_mae 0.504 0.737 1.031 0.983
acf_mae 0.043 0.062 0.086 0.097
extremogram_mae 0.029 0.039 0.100 0.020

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp370

Metric naive xgboost lstm cnn
diff_of_means -0.134 -0.170 0.177 0.263
ratio_of_sd 1.109 1.061 0.978 0.989
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.961 0.884 0.925 0.935
maximum_error 0.114 0.224 0.365 0.131
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.287 0.299 0.230 0.243
qqplot_mae 0.631 0.541 0.538 0.766
acf_mae 0.068 0.096 0.032 0.050
extremogram_mae 0.034 0.025 0.016 0.025

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97

mri_esm2_0.ssp434

Metric lstm naive xgboost cnn
diff_of_means 0.146 -0.165 -0.198 0.236
ratio_of_sd 0.988 1.155 1.099 0.999
amplitude_ratio_of_means 0.922 0.963 0.901 0.925
maximum_error 0.381 0.108 0.215 0.128
ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes 0.203 0.276 0.297 0.230
qqplot_mae 0.431 0.878 0.724 0.688
acf_mae 0.043 0.085 0.106 0.063
extremogram_mae 0.012 0.053 0.020 0.023

Time series of the first days

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97